Consolidation is back below buffer (yellow-magenta) as we work our way towards the lower short-term support (blue).

It’s been roughly a month now since our last breakout at the cycle test zone (purple) and first engagement in this downtrend.

In terms of whether to consider this as a bearish cycle at his point?

I’ve made calls in the past which turned out to be minor breakouts versus a deviation from the short-term trend so I’ll go ahead and simplify based on the long-term zones.

With respect to the cycle test zone, anything over 2 zones in either direction would be considered a cycle trend change.

Therefore if we dip into the next long-term zone (black) I would consider this an overall bearish cycle and expect further downtrend until a critical price zone is hit.

In this instance we could assume ~2500 end of May or early June.