In the past 2 BTC bear markets, shown below, BTC does at least 3 halvings when it crashes, pulling back ~35-60% each time. The last pullback is typically ~60%, marking capitulation.

In the current market we’ve seen two halvings, and now we’re on a third pullback, which could be the capitulation. We seem to have started a leg 4 up, which could run as high as 32-34k before resuming the bear trend for leg 5. ABC after that could drop us as low as 17k , but I doubt it lasts long below $20k, if it gets there.