Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) just made a Bearish Cross between the MA20 (red trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for the first time since the previous Bear Cycle. In fact that is a technical feat only seen during Bear Cycles and most notably around the bottom. More specifically, in the 2018 Bear Cycle, this Bearish Cross took place 1 week after the market bottom, while in the 2014 Bear Cycle it took place 1 week before it.

In addition to that Cross, another important historical indicator that is typically seen near bottoms, flashed a signal. The Gaussian Channel just turned red for the first time since July 2019. However, in both previous Cycles, when this indicator turned red, the price dropped around another -50% before making the market Bottom. We have to keep an eye on that, even though a symmetrical drop would pull the price as low as 16000, which isn’t only below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also (considerably) below the Top of the previous Cycle (19800), which has never happened before historically (price in the new Cycle never re-tests the Top of the previous Cycle).

With the 1W RSI rebounding on a Lower Lows patterns similar to the January 2015 bottom formation, it seems more likely for Bitcoin to consolidate there for a few weeks as part of an accumulation phase that will form the bottom and give way to a gradual price recovery by the end of the summer.

So what do you think? Will the current 1W MA20/100 Bearish Cross form the bottom around the current levels or another -50% drop will take place as suggested by the Gaussian Channel? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

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