Q1: How is the reduced wheat crop size impacting Australian farmers?
Australia’s wheat crop is facing a third consecutive cut due to parched conditions, spelling disaster for farmers across the country.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has forecast a national wheat crop of 17.3 million tonnes for the 2020-21 season, down from the 19.3 million tonnes forecast in December. This is the third consecutive cut to the forecast, with the initial forecast of 21.9 million tonnes in September.
The drought conditions across much of the country have been a major factor in the reduced crop size. In New South Wales, the worst-affected state, the crop is expected to be just 4.3 million tonnes, down from the initial forecast of 6.3 million tonnes.
The impact of the reduced crop size is already being felt by farmers. Many are facing financial hardship due to the reduced income from the crop, and some are even being forced to sell off their livestock.
The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, with the Bureau of Meteorology forecasting a drier than average winter for much of the country. This means that the crop size is unlikely to improve in the near future.
The Australian government has announced a $1.8 billion drought relief package to help farmers affected by the drought. However, this is unlikely to be enough to offset the financial losses caused by the reduced crop size.
The reduced wheat crop is a major blow to Australia’s agricultural industry, and the impact is likely to be felt for some time to come. Farmers across the country are facing an uncertain future, and it is essential that the government takes further action to support them.
As El Niño conditions are set to take hold in July, Australia’s wheat production is forecast to drop by a staggering 34% in the coming season. This is due to dry conditions and low soil moisture in some growing regions, which has led to much of the 2023–24 crop being sown dry. Global wheat prices have been near their lowest in over two years, but have recently gained 10% as traders weigh weather risks around the world. The country’s wheat output may decline 34% from a record to 26.2 million tons, slightly below the 10-year average. Barley production is set to fall 30% to 9.9 million tons, around 11% below the 10-year average. Canola output may drop 41% to 4.9 million tons, 15% above the 10-year average, according to Abares. The value of Australia’s agricultural exports is predicted to fall 17% from a record to A$65 billion ($43 billion) in 2023-24, it said in a separate report. With weather systems forming on both the west and east coasts of Australia, the future of the country’s crops is uncertain.