The current market structure shows strong similarities to the 2014 top and subsequent bear market. Especially the 100 weekly SMA lines up perfectly.

If it breaks the 100 weekly SMA (weekly close below), chances are that we will follow a similar trajectory like 2014 which means:
– strong sell of following the break of the SMA
– potentially wick down to previous ATH at $20.000
– slow recovery. Potentially not before summer 2024

On the bright side we did not have the same blow of top like 2014. Which might indicate we do not have the same extremes like back then and will not wick down to $20.000, but find a bottom around $25.000.

Let’s hope the 100 SMA holds.