XRPUSD got rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the second time in two months. Basically, it has been trading below the 1W MA50 for the whole year. At the same time it has been trading under the bearish pressure of the Lower Highs trend-line since the April 2021 High.

This is not unfamiliar territory for XRP as every single Cycle it traded, has formed Lower Highs. Based on the past two Cycles, there are two scenarios that arise:

a) If the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and mainly the Higher Lows zone hold, then as in 2016, a Channel (Green) should lead the price above the 1W MA50 again and ultimately to a new rally.

b) If the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and mainly the Higher Lows zone break, then as in 2019, the price should make one final Lower Low and form the market bottom there.

Based on the 1W RSI sequence, it appears that as the Lower Highs broke (dashed line on the RSI area), it looks more like the bottom formations of both late 2016/early 2017 and early 2020.

As for the expected target? In our view it will be around the 2.5 historic Fibonacci extension at $6.70.

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