Monero (XMRUSD) has been very strong since the February 25 Double Bottom as it almost reached the early January High. In doing so, it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line of the May 07 All Time High (ATH) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). It is possible that within this month, it will form a 1D Golden Cross (when the 1D MA50 (blue) crosses above the 1D MA200).

The last time the price broke above such a long-term Lower Highs trend-line and formed a 1D Golden Cross after, was in early 2019 when Monero and the whole market was starting to recover from the 2018 Bear Cycle. The difference is that in 2019 it peaked just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level after forming the Golden Cross, while now it has already come very close to the 0.5 Fib without having formed the Golden Cross. The question is, are we too soon or too late on the fractal?

The RSI on the 1W time-frame seems to support that we are too soon and there is still room to rise, despite having almost reached the 0.5 Fib already. Basically it looks quite a lot like the Golden Cross of May 2020, when the market was recovering from the March COVID flash crash. In both cases, the price always tested the 1D MA50 before rising any further and that is what we are expecting to happen here before a new rally to the 0.618 Fib at $307.00.

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