I have seen a lot of amateur Technical Analysis showing this channel as proof that we are moon bound over time, and that if we break it BTC is in a downtrend. I have added a screenshot from one of the main Internet “Gurus” showing what I mean

This is wrong.

BTC is in an uptrend, and me and my partner @Mayfair_Ventures have been saying for more than a year that it is now a mature instrument playing by the mature instrument rules, obeying Elliott Wave Theory and becoming way more predictable as a result. In fact, we have been amazed at how conformant it has been.

For those of you unfamiliar with Elliott Wave Theory, the basic thrust of it is that you have trends on different timescales, represented by 5-wave patterns, and that fractal 5-wave patterns exist within larger waves, like this:

See how the white weekly wave sits within the blue monthly wave?

Now let’s see that in action:

Now, if I superimpose the channel that everyone bangs on about:

We learn two things:

1. That channel will very likely be broken in order to get to the monthly 4. We have logic to expect that, but this is a broad-brush article, so I’m not going into detail, watch my streams for that.

2. When it does break it, poor analysts and internet MoonBoi idiots will call a downtrend just in time to be exactly wrong. This is how retail traders lose money.

Don’t get caught out.