Why Ethereum Will Never Reach Another ATH – Ether Sensei
On Jan 13, 2018 Ethereum reached it’s all time high of $1,448.18, and it will never, ever, be that valuable again. You’re probably thinking, what the actual f*ck?
Well it’s true, and you need to accept it, or you are never going to make it.
If you go to CoinGecko there’s an interface that shows the ATH of popular cryptocurrencies and how much they have fallen since. The ATH of Bitcoin was $19,665.39 on Dec 16, 2017. In the volatile year that followed, Bitcoin lost close to 90% of its value. It’s recovered some, and sits at 58% of it’s value from ATH. Ethereum as you can see below, hasn’t fared nearly as well.
At press time Ethereum is $211.15, only 14% of its value since ATH. In this article we will cover the reasons why this happened and make a case for why it will never again reach ATH. The first reason is simple and obvious: the ICO Craze of 2017.
In 2017, it became easy for anyone with a basic understanding of computers to create their own ERC-20 token on the Ethereum block-chain. If you invested in cryptocurrency during this time you probably remember being able to recklessly throw money at the newest ERC-20 fad and make a quick and easy 200% on your initial investment. Many of these ERC-20 tokens were created by people incapable of maintaining the insane evaluations given to them by speculators, who were high on dumb money. Eventually, anyone who didn’t sell the top would regret ever hearing the names of the ERC-20 investments they made, as most alts slowly went to zero.
The ICO Craze of 2017 is sometimes referred to as Alt Season, and often by people who have no real clue what they are talking about. The only Alt Season that has ever existed is dumb money using Bitcoin profits to recklessly gamble on ICO/IEOs, and that’s the only Alt Season that will ever exist. The reason that Ethereum became so valuable during this time is because you needed Ethereum to participate in “Alt Season”, it was the perfect storm for Ethereum and for a number of reasons, it will never happen again.
- Crypto investors are smarter than they were in 2017. The people who made money in 2017 already sold the top, and the ones who didn’t learned an expensive lesson. Anyone who watched their portfolio slowly circle the drain because of some bad Alt investments are going to be less willing to invest in some random ERC-20 fad.
- Ethereum no longer has a monopoly on ICOs. You have Tron, EOS, Binance Chain etc. All else being equal, you could divide the Ethereum ATH by the number of competitors dividing Ether’s previous ICO monopoly, and you’d have a sensible future price evaluation.
- Regulations. Every day, crypto becomes less and less of a wild wild west than it was the day before. You see legacy software companies like Facebook trying to enter the market, and you see more and more regulations. Let’s be honest, Ethereum would have never reached $1400 if everyone trying to purchase it was forced to do KYC and AML.
So what will happen to Ether? In next week’s follow up we will give our long term price prediction and how we came to that conclusion.
-Ether Sensei
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https://steemit.com/@ethsensei/
Published at Tue, 13 Aug 2019 21:13:28 +0000
Bitcoin Pic Of The Moment
This discontinued 500GH/s BTC miner from Butterfly Labs is a mix of good and not great. It’s also not mine for so many reasons. Anyway the 50lbs. cardboard box this was shipped in includes the miner, two power cables, and foam with an alarmingly strong chemical smell. The contents will be addressed later but right now yes, the miner mines like a demon. Rated at 500GH/s, it’s averaging around 450GH/s or slightly more.
The custom case came in flat black and has two power supplies that both must be turned on to run. It’s a stand-alone unit that requires no monitor, keyboard, or a host computer. It has a built-in WiFi and a tablet ingeniously repurposed into a front panel touchscreen running Andriod. It requires two 10 amp lines, is as noisy as a hair dryer next to your ear from 10 feet away, and runs hot enough to save the Titanic from an oncoming iceberg. This is all expected and if GH/s is all that matters then that’s all there is to this miner. But this unit is no turn-key solution and it shows issues that goes beyond hardware.
The case is incredibly unfriendly to work with utilizing screws that are not standard among PCs save for laptops. Worse than that is the inconsistency – some screws are loose while others have been over-torqued. Either could have been caused from vibrations during shipment but the flush hex screws are not doing it any favors. But wait, why would anyone want to take apart this miner? Other than visual inspection to make sure everything is still attached after shipping, a USB extension cable has to be connected to the USB header cable located inside the case in order for the miner to work at all because Butterfly Labs left it disconnected. This was discovered after spending some time going through the online forums.
I mean if my Wheel Stand Pro imported from Poland came with several pages of instructions and clear technical illustrations, then something that cost as much as a real entry-level rally car should have at the very least a "thx!" hastily written on a sticky. The online instructions in getting started with configuration settings are excellent but the set up and troubleshooting are incredibly difficult to search for. They must be prospected manually by wading through the forums.
The touch screen was another issue. Disconnected from power the touch screen will drain its internal battery unless it’s shut down via the menu. Easy peasy but to turn it back on a long Loki-pokey stick must be inserted in a circular opening on the right hand side of the case. This will hit a small button on the side of the touch screen inside the case. Back in the dark age of personal computing accessing a power supply switch deep inside my old 386-SX was solved by Packard Bell using a button attached to a long S-rod. If the touch screen button was too fragile for that kind of engineering it could have been mentioned on a slip of paper. Instead it felt like I was rooting around for the Autobot Matrix of Leadership.
Even the power requirement is left for the mining operator and the fuse box to discover. Will normal house electrical wiring do or will it need a lightning rod connected to a flux capacitor? A thin, solitary paper and a screenwriter scrawling over it in between waiting tables is not much to ask. Butterfly Labs have limited resources for customer support but basic questions should be taken care of before they hit support.
The miner is having issues just about every time it boots up from a scheduled maintenance shutdown. It could be that running on unfiltered lines and the unit itself may have been refurbished is giving us additional problems. It’s still mining like a beast and at the end of the day that’s all that matters, until something breaks.
-Update: Corrected 400GH/s to 500GH/s.
-Update 2014-08-11: Other than a week or two of scheduled downtime the miner is still mining with no issues.
-Update 2014-09-23: Federal Trade Commission in civil suit against Butterfly Labs for engaging in alleged fraudulent and deceptive practices.
arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2014/09/feds-label-bitcoin-mi…
By vmax137 on 2013-12-23 19:49:46
