WEEK 04: ADAs Market Observation – Trader_ADA
– My outline for this week would be loading shots up to 1.30803, if possible, still think the price can rally into our QE (equilibrium) and then sell-off. I would target 1.29200 and lower prices.
– There can be also the situation, that our range low will be immediately broken if so, I will short from there (any movement uploading up into my shorts) and targeting 1.29200 level.
My invalidation of this thesis would be if the price would start closing above 1.31. Then I will change my bearish bias into bullish bias and will flip into long.
EurUsd idea had played perfectly last week. It has touched the resistance/range high to the pip and followed by a quick and massive sell-off. I would like to see the price hit that projected “eye” this week.
There are two scenarios:
1) the price can rally up to 1,11300 where we have our black horizontal line (range low) and sell-off. Next area of interest at 1,10200–1,1000. You should here to get out of the shorts or pay for yourself and wait for reclamation if there will be enough support if so, you can long here
2) the price can continue and swept lows first, area 1,10200–1,1000, then I will look at our range low (be careful I mean range low here HTF Range low at 1,10200 level) to see if price can reclaim it as support if so, then I will long it, if not, I will add into my shorts once again
I have outlined for you keys areas S/R level what to watch during the next week in Bitcoin. The main point here is, you can use these key s/r levels for your own benefits and for swing plays because there are wide enough and will also provide you enough time to figure it out if there is the reclamation of support or resistance, because we are at H2 time frame.
The overall price is stuck between three main ranges $7200-$8200-$9400.
As you can see we had some rejection at $9125, if you are looking for shorts, you wanna see clear rejection at $8850 followed by sell-off and taking profits at $8050 area and watching if there will be enough strength for longs or holding your shorts to the next lower key areas.
For me ideal scenario would be for longs if $9100 will be reclaimed as support, then I will add into my spot and long in futures. Otherwise, I will short it at $8600–8900 down to $8300–8000 and see reaction down there. If there will be not any strength at support, then I will add into my shorts once level will be reclaimed as resistance and will see or reaction of another support at $7,800 — $7500 and so on.
Remember that Bitcoin is not in an uptrend on the higher time frame yet. For me, the HTF Bullish would be close weekly above $9400. Yes, I was long in this +40% ride and I have enjoyed it and I do not have a problem change my bias from HTF Bearish into Bullish once $9400 will be reclaimed (still following my published idea 2020 Bitcoin Strategy).
As you can see, our objective has been reached and price swept lows, where is our “eye”.
I am still keeping this idea and would like to see price reach $1570–1580 following with rejection, sell-off and fill in our too thin liquidity down to $1516–1477.
I would change my LTF Bearish view, once we will reclaim support $1590–1600 level.
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I do a daily observation of major currencies in forex and crypto. Do not miss any move, high-valued analysis or educational content.
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Published at Mon, 20 Jan 2020 00:54:38 +0000
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