Good morning.

With the markets crashing and prices not reaching levels many had called for, and me having a dream last night that BTC reached $0.50 per coin – yes, I was stacking those sats! – it’s time to zoom out and see how far we’ve come, and think about where we may go in the future.

There are many predictions I have seen, but most models do not truly show the regressiveness of Bitcoin . I know many people will hate this, but here it is. Bitcoin will do a 10x…..in about 10 years!

It was a well known fact that Bitcoin becomes less volatile over time – less extreme highs and lows. But how much? This is what I sought to discover and I found a – somewhat – trend.

**NOTE**
I did not include the first bull run from 2013 because it was a shorter bull run and the asset was much less mature, so these prehistoric times were unreliable to me.

So, how did I get this forecast?

I took the difference in gains between the last two major cycles and saw the difference in percentage price gains (% gains 2 / % gains 1) was lower over time. If then you found the ratio of this figure by getting:
(% gains 3 / % gains 2) / (% gains 2 / percentage gains 1), then you will typically get a ratio between 1.27 – 1.3

I then laid down fibs from the tops to the bottoms and paired those two theories together to draw out these regressive trend lines .

My theory after this cycle is that Bitcoin price will always disappoint short-term holders, and that you need to be smart and realistic with your expectations, and remember that Bitcoin will never have the price moves it used to. This is just a sign of the asset becoming more mature. Also, remember this is a long game. Anyone in Bitcoin for 4 years WILL make money.

Cheers for reading, and let me know your thoughts on my 280K target.

Tchau