This is the weekly chart with the 200 moving average and the monthly bollinger bands with length set to 18 and standard deviation set to 1.2. Now that the monthly chart has closed below the 20 moving average, a lot of people are expecting the price to go down to the 200 week moving average like it did in the previous bear markets. As the bollinger bands shows, the volatility is a lot lower now than it has been in previous cycles. We did not have the parabolic blow-off top that people were expecting, and I think this also will be true for the downside. When to many people are looking at the same levels, it likely gets front-ran. There’s a lot more money in the market now, and money managers will likely be value buying the lows. I’m still medium term bearish on bitcoin , but there has never been a good idea to short when the price reached the bottom side of the bollinger bands on this chart.