Disclaimer: I’m not sure this is an Analysis, it’s more a test with a bit of TA.

I’ve just found out this indicator which is called Binance Basis Oscillator which makes a ratio between BTCUSDT on perpetual futures and spot market. Off course on Binance.

The guy who tweeted this said it’s good to identify where the trend is going so I thought to test it. Since it was meant to identify major trends I thought to test it at high timeframes so I checked it on the weekly. What I’ve noticed is that using it with the default setting it’s pointless because of the lag. In the setting menu I noticed that by default it uses SMA for the primary moving average and the EMA for the second one.

As I said it was too laggy and signaled the oversold and overbought regions too late even at weekly so I thought to switch the primary moving average on EMA and what I’ve noticed is that at least 2021 oversold area corresponded with the price peak before the decline began.

If we assume that the real bottom will start with this indicator touching the oversold area (then becoming green) I think bottom is yet to come. I thought this before using the indicator and this might confirm my previous TA.

This is my experiment: I think the bottom will be between 31k and 29k (to narrow I’d say 31-30K), if BTC goes there and this turns green on the weekly maybe it works.

Let’s wait and see