As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, regulated betting markets have emerged, offering a formal avenue for wagering on election outcomes. However, these markets remain dwarfed by the expansive liquidity and activity seen on Polymarket, highlighting a significant disparity in election betting dynamics.
Prediction markets, exemplified by Polymarket, are emerging as vital public goods, offering forecasts that often surpass traditional polling accuracy. They harness collective wisdom, enabling users to bet on events, thus reflecting real-time sentiment and predictions.
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Bloomberg integrates Polymarket’s election data into its Terminal, providing valuable insights for investors and analysts.
Despite recent polls showing a narrowing race, Donald Trump has maintained his lead over Kamala Harris in the Polymarket prediction market. As of July 22, 2023, Trump’s odds of winning the presidency stand at 62%, while Harris remains at 38%. This divergence between polls and the prediction market suggests that investors may be taking a more pessimistic view of Harris’s chances than the general public.