OKEx Technical Weekly: Feb 10, 2020 – OKEx Blog

OKEx Technical Weekly: Feb 10, 2020 – OKEx Blog

The bullish sentiment in Bitcoin has spilled over in the broader cryptocurrency market, as bitcoin prices have been standing above the psychological 10000 levels since the weekend. While the recent price actions may have cheered up a lot of crypto watchers, profit-taking activities could put the bulls in a relatively vulnerable position in the short-term. However, the longer-term uptrend remains largely unbroken.

A survey from Sentix shows that the positive sentiment from institutional and individual investors has started to soften, although bitcoin prices have surpassed the 10000 levels. Patrick Hussy, Managing Director at Sentix, said the decline could indicate “a willingness to take profits among investors. This should slow down the ongoing price recovery.” He also added that bitcoin price would take a short breather over the next 2–3 weeks, and investors will have time to develop a new perspective.

At the same time, the CME Futures chart also suggesting the current bitcoin rally may need to take a break. CME Futures has produced a flash crash on Monday and filled its hourly gap in between 9875 to 10200. We believe the price may have to consolidate further in the upper 9000 handles before another development occurs.

BTC has been changing hands at in the 11000 levels during early Asia Monday trading, while major altcoin names like ETH and XRP have slightly dipped into the red after the weekend rally. We’ve seen a mixed bag elsewhere, with ALGO surged about 10%, and BSV traded 6% lower in the session.

• Ethereum and DeFi remained in the spotlight as the aggregate value locked in DeFi remained at USD 1 bln, that’s according to DeFi Pulse. Their data also shows that the total ETH locked in DeFi maintained at about ETH 3.2 mln. The price of ETH has gained about 75% YoY, and the growth of the locked value has reached 46% YTD.
• Staying with ETH, a survey shows that the crypto community has been expecting to see CFTC-regulated exchanges to launch ETH-based token futures this year. Finding from The Block’s 2020 Outlook shows that 68% of their respondents believe that ETH future will go live on a regulated exchange in 2020.
• The US may have been warming up for exploring the possibilities with CBDC. During a speech at Stanford Graduate School of Business, the Fed’s Lael Brainard said the Fed was “conducting research and experimentation related to distributed ledger technologies and their potential use case for digital currencies, including the potential for a CBDC.”
• Lack of transparency could be one of the reasons behind some financial giants’ departure of the Libra Association. Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga told FT that besides the transparency issue, the company was also concerned about Libra’s business model because the Association “hasn’t made clear how it will make money.”

BTCUSDT

• BTCUSDT’s rally may need to take a break at the current levels before retesting the October high of 10500.
• Although the upward channel remains unbroken, momentum indicators have flashed overbought signals. The RSI has hit the upper 70 areas, while the ultimate oscillator went above 60, which indicates the bulls look tired. Moreover, the fast line has gone down below the signal line in the overbought area of the stochastic oscillator. That strengthened a short-term correction case of the price.
• CME’s CoT shows that leveraged accounts have increased their short positions, and the drop of the overall open interest also suggests that a price correction could due soon.
• As we mentioned above, CME’s gap-filling could send BTC prices back to 9875, which also close to the 10-day moving average near the 9600 area, and that could be the first reference point. Below that, 250-MA and the lower support of the channel at near 9450 looks like decent support.
• The ideal case would be the pair first retest the lower support in the 9000 to 9500 before continuing its rally towards 10500.

ETHUSDT

• A similar momentum pattern has also seen in ETHUSDT, with the daily stochastic oscillator produced a bearish crossover in the overbought zone, and other indicators have also signaled a price overbought.
• However, it’s worth noting that a daily golden cross seems in the making, with the 20-day moving average is about to cross above the 250-day moving average, which considered a bullish signal.
• Given the high potential of short-term profit-taking, we believe that the price could retest the lower support near the 250-MA at near the 203 area before the rally continues. If compromised, the lows of early February near 184 would be the first level to watch, followed by 179.
• A strong rally could be seen if the pair breaks above the August high of 239.

XRPUSDT

• We want to follow up on our XRPUSDT analysis that we made in our January review. OKEx Techincals highlighted the current daily triangle formation of the pair, and it could be the time for XRP to turn. The pair have started to make a turn after the price hit the upper resistance of the triangle.
• We maintain our view on XRPUSDT, believing that the pair could retest the lower support near 0.248 to 0.252 before producing a breakout.
• The OKEx XRP Long/Short Ratio also seems supporting that argument. Despite the recent retreat, the Ratio still stands firmly above 2, which is significantly higher than in early January of 1.66 to 1.8. The reading could indicate that the potential profit of short positions has been snowballing.

NEOUSDT

• NEO has been one of the altcoin movers in the Monday session. It traded about 2% higher against USDT. However, the rally seems tired, and a correction could be imminent.
• With the recent price actions, the pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, but we believe a breakout is yet to come.
• The RSI has produced a bearish divergence. It has been unable to produce some higher highs while the price has been going upward.
• The first level to watch would be the 20-day moving average near 11.8. If seen, it will reinforce the case of testing the lower support of the triangle near 9.8, before producing a breakout.

Published at Tue, 11 Feb 2020 03:58:44 +0000

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