At this point in time we still need to confirm our ST – but as we are currently highly oversold I’m expecting a bounce here.
According to Wyckoff, this bounce should then bounce us all the way up to the AR level – after which we expect to fall down and ignite that spring reversal.
I’m expecting the spring to be around the 20k level as it will break the 200 weekly SMA to shake out weak hands and create max pain whilst still maintaining market structure by staying above the previous ATH.
As the title suggests, this pattern will take years to play out – giving current financial, economic and geopolitical adversities a chance to cool down and providing unseen opportunities for institutions to get in at a low price when regulations are finally set in place.
I wouldn’t be surprised that when the spring occurs, the fed will pivot dovish, a physical BTC ETF will launch and geopolitical unrest cools off – all around the same time, creating a bull run unlike any other; finally passing the chasm on the adoption curve.