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You can’t just copy & paste the previous cycle and expect the same % return, because trends can’t keep the same angle

As the market cap of an asset grows, it becomes harder to move the asset since more capital is required. That’s why in the first cycle we see the wildest uptrends & steepest corrections.

In 2014 Monero (XMR) had a downtrend of -64°
Next Cycle -64° turns into -41° as XMR gains more capital & participants

Now we’re in the 3rd downtrend and it’s even less aggressive – only -18° (and I expect it to take more time to reach the bottom)

I also like the math: 64-41=23

Every next downtrend is less steep by 23°
41-23=18° – perfectly matches the 3rd downtrend we’re currently in
Same math can be applied to the uptrends. So we can expect the next Uptrend have 25° of steepness (it will take several years to reach an ATH)

What does all this mean?

Well, probably you should look for opportunities to participate in the first cycles.
Forget about old coins (since they also lose in technology to new projects and become less relevant) and pay attention to the new ones. Accumulate them after the downtrend 1 and multiply your capital during the following uptrend.

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The information given is never financial advice. Always do your own research