Bitcoin has seen a nasty capitulation candle down to the 55 Monthly EMA / 0.618 macro Fibonacci level from its all-time highs and has since bounced to the 30k region.

Given the rapid selloff, I firmly believe that we are now closer to a bottom than a top. The most bearish calls and technical analysis that I have seen (barring zero), are the 12k calls, 200Week moving average call (currently 22k or the 55 monthly ema bottom call at 24.5k).

There is a possibility of a bullish relief rally continuing should the NASDAQ continue to show strength and the dollar continue to weaken. However, Bitcoin remains in a bear market until we break the 200 Day moving average / 50 Week moving average and hold it as support.

In the bearish case, I am sharing an interesting fractal that would suggest that the majority of the downside move towards the bottom could be In and how we could arrive at the 200 Week Moving average, which has marked the bottom on the past three big bear market selloff.

Not financial advice. Note, that this is only one of many scenarios that I am currently evaluating that could play out.