Interdax Weekly Market Report February 18 – Interdax Blog
It is interesting to note that Messari’s real volume indicates that there’s more interest in ETH than there is in BTC, with the 24-hour real volume for ETH being approximately $619.1 million as compared to $339 million for BTC.
Real Bitcoin Volume
The chart below displays the aggregate trading volume for the ‘Bitwise top 10’ exchanges and derivatives exchanges, along with the 90-day simple moving average.
Trading volumes have not managed to regain the levels that were observed in July-August 2019, but the moving averge has started to increase from the lows seen in early January 2020.
The chart below shows the prices of different futures contracts for bitcoin on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
As shown below, institutional traders are not betting on a big rise after the block reward halving in May. According to the chart below, we might see BTC-USD fluctuate around the $9,800-$10,000 zone until after the halving in June, where futures contracts with June expiry are currently trading at $10,200.
Notice the sharp rise in the price of the CME’s bitcoin futures contract after June, suggesting institutional traders are betting on a break of $11,000 by the end of July (or by the end of the year).
Bitcoin recently reached the highest level so far in 2020 — peaking at $10,500 on February 13. However, BTC-USD has since moved below the psychological level at $10,000 and is currently trading just above the Fibonacci level at $9,770.55.
Monthly Chart
The monthly chart gives us some idea of where we might see strong support or resistance over the next few months.
BTC-USD had trouble sustaining above $9,770.55 but a monthly close above this level should be bullish and see a drift toward the next Fibonacci level at $11,341.18. However, a monthly close below this level will most likely lead to a test of the support at $8,501.14.
The fractal forming at $6,425 should also provide bullish momentum once February’s candle closes.
The MACD suggests the long-term momentum is positive.
Daily Chart
The chart below shows daily price action for bitcoin, along with the two-year moving average, Fibonacci weekly support and resistance, fractal levels and the MACD oscillator.
The price is currently sitting above the first weekly support — which lies at $9,657. If BTC-USD remains above $9,467.57 until February 20th (00:00), then a down fractal will form at this level and provide upward momentum.
The MACD is negative, with a downward crossover observed on February 15, suggesting momentum is in favour of bears.
Ether has bounced back stronger than bitcoin over the past few weeks, with ETH-USD breaking above an important resistance level at $256.23.
Monthly Chart
Ether has broken above an important resistance level, with a monthly close above $256.23 considered bullish. The next Fibonacci resistance is at $297.15 and a break of this level should see a quick move to the 2019 high at $363.30.
However, a rejection of $297.15 could see ETH-USD trade in the $250-$300 range for a while.
Daily Chart
Looking at the daily chart, the outlook seems to be more bullish for ETH than the outlook for BTC.
Firstly, ETH-USD has yet to break above the two-year moving average, which provoked a strong rally in BTC-USD during 2020. However, like BTC, ETH may take multiple attempts at breaking the moving average before it finally clears this level.
Also, we see that the price is trading above the weekly pivot point, with the next Fibonacci resistance at $281.21.
By the close of February 18’s candle, we should see a fractal buy level form at $237.99 which should provide upward momentum going forward.
Finally, the MACD is positive, suggesting momentum is in favour of bulls.
How is the market feeling?
Crypto Fear and Greed Index
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently at 53 = ‘Greed’, dropping slightly from highs established on February 13.
The Index continues to recover from the lows of 15 from December 18 and has fallen slightly from last week’s reading (61).
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is up slightly against last month’s reading of 52.
Published at Tue, 18 Feb 2020 16:29:59 +0000
