Influence of Chinese New Year on Bitcoin (BTC) Prices
Chinese New Year (Lunar New Year) has strong influence on cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin prices decreasing in the months leading up to the New Year. This article examines the trend and the possible reasons for why it happens. Chinese New Year is celebrated on a different day each year as it is based on the Lunar Calendar. In 2020 it starts on Saturday, 25 January and ends on Monday, 27 January. In 2021 the festival will start in Friday, 12 February.
This period is a public holiday in China, as many employees travel back their home towns to celebrate with their families. With a population of 1.386 billion, this represents the largest short term migration in the world. All factories in China close during this period, with operations frozen for up to 2 weeks as logistics companies and suppliers slowly open up. Chinese New Year is also celebrated in other Asian countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Korea (Korean New Year).
Chinese New Year Dump
For a consecutive 4 years, Bitcoin prices would always drop in the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year. For example in 2017, prices dropped by 50% from $12,000 to $6000 right before the festival. This pattern has referred to as the “Chinese New Year Dump” by cryptocurrency traders.
Market Makers on Holiday
During Chinese New Year, market making operations will be limited in capacity. This leads to more volatile and less liquid markets.
Cashing out for the New Year
Tradition dictates that married couples should give out red packets to young unmarried children, elderly and service personnel. Company Executives and managers should also give money to their subordinates – with some packets being filled to as much as the employee’s monthly wage.
Due to the huge amount of cash money required, some suspect that this tradition is responsible the increase in Bitcoin Sell orders before Chinese New Year.
Bitcoin Mining is Unaffected
As China is a huge contributor to Bitcoin mining, one might expect that cryptocurrency mining may get affected during the festival. This is not the case, as Bitcoin and Ethereum Hashrates hold steady during this time. This is because mining does not require significant man power to maintain, and hence mines are left operating during the New Year.
Chinese OTC Volume Drops
Bitcoin is traded in China via Over the Counter (OTC) desks. These OTC desks match orders from buyers and sellers and can offer escrow services. Top desks include Genesis Block, Binance OTC and Huobi OTC.
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Published at Fri, 10 Jan 2020 10:41:32 +0000
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