Hey mates,

When the market behaves unexpectedly and many people lose their money it is the best time to calm down and take a look at the market globally and historically.

Market Phases Theory comes from the roots of the Dow Jones theory of Stock Market Cycles. Basically, all markets are passing 4 constant market phases:

1. accumulation
2. uptrend or markup
3. distribution
4. downtrend or markdown

Before making any decisions it’s crucial to understand where we are now and we do we go. Let’s use the method of elimination.

So, today, on April 12th, we are obviously not in the Uptrend or Advancing phase. We are not in the Distribution phase too.

Are we in a Downtrend or Declining Phase? Maybe, because 6 months ago we hit All-Time-High . Maybe not, because we are still in a macro bullish trend since 2020, for 2 years by now: higher lows – higher highs.

Are we in Accumulation Phase? Highly probable.

Take a look at the Chart. After a rapid downtrend, we stopped at a particular level of 33000-34000, and since then we’re defending this level and moving to ascend.
The Point-of-Control of the last 18 months shows us an important accumulation level on 38888, where we are today.

Of course, the global economical and political state is not optimistic, there is big tension and uncertainty.
We’ve got a Black Swan of Russian Military Aggression on Ukraine and the whole world.
The US is trying to fix things it was done by printing unlimited money and ignoring inflation risks.

So there are a lot of factors that can bring us to a continuous downtrend leading to the bottom of nowhere.

But until we’re in a macro ascending trend and holding above 35000 – we may say it’s still an accumulation phase. Otherwise, we would say about degrading market and falling under 30000.