So Ether has dropped a lot from its record, around 60% last I saw. Classical TA suggests we may be nowhere close to where this bear market ends.

So, the ominous head and shoulders top got activated with the recent drop. The measured objective suggests a drop below $1000. Should it happen? Of course not. Will it happen? We don’t know. But after looking at a few hundred thousand charts, two things have become very clear. One is that never say never (anyone remembers oil going -ve?); two, don’t miss the forest for the trees. Long term pattern targets have an uncanny ability to achieve their nearly “impossible” targets. Once you accept the truth rather than the dismissing it, navigating the markets will become relatively easy and nothing will seem “out of the world”. At the least not very regularly.

Coming back to Ether, I noticed that the market at its record peak was nowhere close to the top of the rising channel — see how the final move to the record couldn’t even get past the median channel line. That, along with the fact that the right shoulder had comparatively lower amplitude relative to the left shoulder was a big red flag. Remember that weakness in the prevailing trend begets a very strong move in the opposite direction, once the reversal kicks off.

Oh and before I forget, the 38.2% Fibonacci level almost always gets tested regardless of degree, both within strong bull and strong bear markets. Uncannily enough, that’s very close to the H&S objective.

Good luck to us all.