On the chart are four bear markets. I decided to add the 2011 bear market too.

All three green lines are the tops of bull cycles, and the red lines are the bottoms of the bear markets.

As you can see, previous bottoms never touched the tops. Here are some metrics:
1) from a lower low in 2015 to a higher high in 2011 is around an 80% difference.
2) from a bottom in 2018 to a top in 2015 is a difference of around 60%.
3) in the present time, we have a distance of 22%. Of course, it has an explanation because BTC price has roses thousands of times.
80% – 60% – 22% this distance shrinks 1.5 and 3 times.

Also, a significant indicator is a volume during bear markets.
2011 – 7.9
2015 – 14.2
2018 – 13.5
2022 – only 4.4 compared to previous declines, it is too low numbers, but let’s look into an alternative idea that the fourth bear market began in APR 2011, and it makes some sense because the volume is 10.2

As I mentioned in part 2 of my analysis, I am waiting for the last movement down into the area between 200 days EMA and MA after the bounce (correction) to the 33000-34000 zone.

Nevertheless, if the Federal Reserve System will fight inflation and not raise interest rates anymore, plus if the global situation of geopolitics will change to positive and stable, I will shift my plans and consider that the 25300 level was the bottom and we will have the third pick.

May the profit be with you!