A scary time in the macro-environment for both equities and crypto, however despite the heavy headwinds of rampant inflation , a slowing economy, and tightening by the Fed and other central banks, Bitcoin seems to be following a “normal” cycle and is now entering into an area of relative value.

This week has seen us open below the 2Y Daily Moving average holding above the 200 Week support which has historically held strong. From a technical perspective we seem to have two likely scenarios:

• Scenario A – we hold the Summer 2021 lows to form a giant two-year sideways consolidation before trending up as we get closer to the next Bitcoin halving.
• Scenario B – we have a short relief/consolidation before continuation down to the 200 Week SMA and spend a few months in accumulation mode

Potentially a good place for some light DCA with one eye on the 200 week to build a bigger position.