Potentially a relief rally in a long term bear market…Weekly trend hit target, monthly trend is still down and equities could top after a relief rally. I’m long $BTCUSD here, aiming for a move back to the range of the Ukraine invasion day, give or take. Time@Mode trend in the daily turned up, so if the base here holds up, we will go higher. A lot of pessimism got me optimistic lately, everyone on Crypto Twitter was going on about the decoupling of $Bitcoin vs $SPX , citing the last couple days relative performance as a really bearish cue. In my opinion, it was short sighted to look at it and discard historical data since Bitcoin topped. I compared it vs $ARKK and $SPY and $QQQ, and it’s clear to me that overall, the correlation remains. I figured out it would catch up to where equities were, and go higher with them for a couple weeks here.

The market seems to be pricing in a potential Fed pivot by Sept, and until we get to the next FOMC meeting, nothing can easily stop the bulls here…If sellers stop selling, we can easily glide higher due to short covering, since everyone was so negative. As a cherry on top, we had Jim Chanos going public about his short thesis for $COIN, which came after the stock formed a bullish base and Time@Mode signal. Considering his awful timing with $TSLA, and the various bearish CT influencers (like the infamous Maren, who made a bearish call based on the horoscope or some insane bs) I find the long trade an easy low risk bet here. Set stops sligthly below the yellow box (daily uptrend mode, where most of the trading took place since basing after the bottom).

I’ve covered shorts across the board, and bot back Soybeans , and some stocks, since last week, and now am long $Bitcoin again, let’s see how this goes, we may have some time to rally here. Soybeans and oil can go higher for longer than risk assets and Bitcoin , and might end up affecting equities negatively due to inflation data getting worse, specially if we hear about the Fed’s resolve to hike, and get people to give up on the Fed pivot hopium theory.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.