BTC has been in a huge triangle since the end of December. For a while it appeared to be a bullish symmetrical triangle, but after the last two breakout attempts it doesn’t look like the market is bullish enough to really pump it out of the triangle. Now it is looking more like a bearish descending triangle .

Full moons generally indicate the beginning of downtrends and you can see that this has been the case the last 2 full moons as indicated by the orange arrows. The full moon is exact in a few hours and I believe we’ve headed into a downtrend.

BTC will probably retest the bottom of the triangle at around $35K. It may well also breakout on the downside and test the monthly S2 pivot point at $29600.

If it bounces at the triangle bottom, it will confirm a more bullish outlook. In that case I’d expect a nice pump up out of the triangle to test the R1 pivot point at $48K around the end of the month near new moon on March 31.