BTC currently sits at a major crossroad. We just broke down and negatively retested a very pivotal MA which has three times in the past sent BTC tumbling down 46 – 58 percent (scroll back to 2014 and see the same event play out).

Should history be anything to go by, we should see a down leg of approximately 40 percent, which aligns almost accurately with the 61.8 retrace of the move from 2020 lows.

Can we move upward from here? Yes! But we would first need to reclaim the MA, and in this regard, the statistics are against us. BTC has failed to regain it in all instances.

Moving on to technicals, we can see BTC clearly breaking down a huge bear flag . I’m not calling doomsday here, but all I’m saying is to exercise caution with longs at this point.

In summary, anywhere between 23k and 27k is very possible, maybe immediately, maybe a bit later in the year.

This is not financial advise in any manner. DYOR and manage your risk properly.

Best of luck from Commodore!