Hello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD .

I want to start by saying… Hang in there everyone and don’t give up.
– The past few days have been unprecedented in a lot of ways for Crypto, specifically BTC and LUNA.
– Personally I lost a massive amount of money on LUNA. I had a large long position that was liquidated and I also had a portion of my money in UST which I lost as well. In attempts to keep my LUNA position from being liquidated I had to buy more LUNA on 3 separate occasions to lower my liquidation price, ultimately I was liquidated.
– In total I lost nearly 30% of my portfolio between LUNA and UST .

This whole situation sucks and a lot of people lost an incredible amount of money.
– If you’re unfamiliar with how this happened, the short of it is this:
– LUNA has a stable coin backed by BTC called UST .
– The stable coin became unpegged, panic ensued and people stared selling in mass driving down the price of UST .
– LUNA had to sell their BTC to bring the UST price back up. This also drove the price of BTC down.
– As of today LUNA is down 85% since a couple days ago.

So if you had a position in LUNA I feel for you. It’s sad how many people were affected by no fault of their own.

On to BTC
This is going to be short. ***One thing to pay attention to is the releasing of the CPI number at 8:30a.m.
– If the CPI number is better than expected, the market will rally. If it’s worse… well it’s going to be another painful day.
– BTC tagged major support all the way down just below $30K. Honestly I wasn’t expecting that to happen so quick, but with the whole LUNA situation it was the perfect storm.
– On a positive note, BTC is holding major support very well.
– If the CPI number is good, I’m expecting for BTC to get a nice bounce.

BTC Short Term Targets
– The 1st target I’m eyeing for BTC is at $34.4K. I think this will be easy for BTC to hit on a bounce.
– The 2nd target is at $37.5K. This would be the best case scenario and is a lower probability move.
– The highest I think BTC could go before getting rejected and trending lower is the $37.5K level. So this means I do not think BTC will go much higher than that for the coming months.
– After BTC gets rejected from resistance it will trend back to the $29K zone. This will be a massive test of support, I don’t think it will hold on this retest and will fall below.
– What will follow is another massive sell off like we saw the past few days.

Summary
– BTC should bounce
– 1st target $34.4K
– 2nd target $37.5K
– BTC will get rejected, then trend lower and break $29K support
– Followed by another large sell off

***On a side note*** I’m not sure how active I’ll be this week. I lost a lot of money yesterday and need to take some time to figure things out. I’ll try to post if I can but I will be back.

Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!