We had a nice rally through the last half of March, and now confronted with a bit of correction/consolidation in the mid $40s. Today saw a selloff in many markets after a comment from the US Government about raising rates in May at the next FOMC meeting. For Bitcoin that resulted in around a 6% selloff at peak, which is respectable but not extreme.

I marked with blue arrows the levels to watch over the next week. Also note the 20/ 21w MA band (bull market support), with the top of that band around $44.3k. We want to see bulls respect that as support, or it could lead to more pronounced downside.

I would be surprised to see us lose $40k in the near term but I marked a support level just under that in the event we get more bearish news, around $38.4k, and macro support currently around $36.4k.

To the upside our main target is really $50k, which is the end of our local value range and where bulls really need to show up if we want break through. The obstacle preventing bulls from reaching $50k — it is the $47-48k range.. where we rejected twice in recent weeks.

I don’t expect a massive rally or dump in the near term, based on a lot of on-chain fundamentals which reflect a recent surge in bullish sentiment and buying.. but we are also still lacking some key data points that support a massive bullish rally too. I think the market is at a more neutral bias for the near term and may present a chance for some scalp/swing trades, or if you are in the -right- kinds of altcoins, as long as Bitcoin continues to range slowly, they have a chance to rally.

That said, the macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook is still volatile and I highly recommend you use stoplosses in your trades. If you are in DEFI or something else like staking or LPs and can’t stoploss, make sure to take profit as often as you can and try to recover your starting capital so you reduce your risk profile if you remain invested.