We want to assist our subscribers and visitors with our analysis during this difficult time.
At Mendenmein Capital we use a combination of the Elliot wave theory and Fibonacci levels to predict major turning points. We also use various historical indicators, as shown below, that proved to be very successful in the past. We recommend to read this article carefully and encourage everyone to ask questions about this special time in bitcoin!
Using our strategy, we were able to buy bitcoin @ $15804.5 and ethereum @ $408.63 in 2020, we published these acquisitions back then on Tradingview.
We would like educate everyone about the current developments in bitcoin and share our insights with investors.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have suffered a loss of more than -50%. In many other altcoins, such as Chainlink or Cardano , the losses amount to far more than -80%.
Currently we are clearly in a bear market, but we would like to announce that this troubling time will soon come to its end.
Technical explanation of the elliot waves and indicators:
On the chart below you can see our more detailed Elliot wave count. Our analysts believe that Bitcoin is in a large wave (I)-(II) movement.
The big wave (I) included the bull market from 2019-2021 and since the high of wave (I) at 64829$ Bitcoin is in a big corrective wave (II).
We believe that the peak of wave (I) was at 64829$, the all-time high at 68958$ was only a corrective (B) wave. Since this (B) wave, Bitcoin is trading downwards in a wave (C), our analysts assume that bitcoin could reach 22,500$ in the next weeks. This movement can be seen on the detailed chart below, we estimate that Bitcoin will face one last painful wave (5) in this wave (C).
The “Weekly moving average 200” always proved to be a tough resistance in the past and we believe that this bear market will also find its end around the 200 MA. In 2018 bitcoin established its bottom at the 200 MA, in 2020 the 200 MA was breached but proved itself as a turning point again.
Several other indicators show that Bitcoin will probably end its big correction around the 200 MA. The most important indicators we use are shown and described in the following pictures.
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (Copyright Blockchaincenter.net)
This is one of the most important Bitcoin charts ever created, it showed great opportunities for Bitcoin accumulation in the past. The different rainbow colors indicate which actions are most advisable in each market phase.
The three lowest zones are most important for our analysis and are divided into Accumulate, Buy, and Basically a Fire Sale. This chart recommends buying bitcoin below 29957$ and encourages investors to drastically increase positions below 22259$. Historically speaking bitcoin could never break out of this channel, except once in 2020 for a matter of days.
In alignment with our analysis, we see it as most advisable to accumulate Bitcoin below the 23000$ level.
2-Year Moving Average Multiplier (Copyright Lookintobitcoin.com)
In the past this indicator showed the ranges in which Bitcoin was overvalued or undervalued. When Bitcoin reached the red line, investors should be rather cautious and the green zone indicated the opportunity for buying Bitcoin in the past years.
Since the beginning of May, Bitcoin has been in this zone and has therefore generated a buy signal. Our analysts see this as a good sign that the bear market will end soon. However, our analysts are waiting for a last capitulation movement towards 23000$ as described above.
200 Week Moving Average Heatmap (Copyright Lookintobitcoin.com)
This indicator shows the importance of the 200 Week Trendline once again and calculates how big the respective gains of this trendline were. As in our own analysis, this indicator shows that large corrections have usually ended at this trendline in the past.
Currently this trendline is at exactly 22091$ and is slowly rising. Our analysts assume that this line will continue to rise a little further.
Summary:
Our analysts believe that the bear market in most cryptocurrencies will soon be over.
It is almost impossible to exactly predict a bottom in bitcoin . However it is possible to make assumptions about a possible turning point. Therefore we as mendenmein-capital assume that bitcoin will bottom out in the range of 18000$ – 23000$.
Mendenmein Capital will begin to accumulate bitcoin in the green buying zone.
In the next few years we can expect another bull market which will take Bitcoin above 100,000$ and eventually to our price target of 120,000$.
We have successfully identified the bull market in 2020 and we are confident that our analysts will succeed in doing so once again.
