It’s been a rocky (and likely stressful for those who are not properly hedged against negative BTC price movement) few months for crypto, but here’s my take on the situation for BTC /USD

So there’s some good news and bad news, and neutral news.

Bad news first: There’s definitely more to go, we haven’t completed the cycle just yet and smart money knows a better entry point is incoming.
Now the good news! The end of the cycle is in sight.
In neutral news: We can predict this cycle because we’re almost completely done with it, but we have no indication of what the next cycle will bring. My belief is that it will be a generally bullish but highly volatile period as smart & big money enters near the bottom, shakes out retail, forms new local tops/bottoms, shakes out retail again, rinse, repeat, until we see a bullish confirmation (listed in point 3.)

Why do I think the bottom is not in?
1. Oscillators indicate a very strong continuing bear trend on 1D, 12H, 6H. It does appear to be slowing in momentum, but not price direction.
2. Money Flow Double Top: This indicates that traders were as interested in BTC @ $40k as they were at $35k. Although a drop in capital inflow ( MFI ) indicates retail traders are at the whim of market conditions ( aka . continuation of trend to cycle completion) it also means there is a lack of capital to reverse the current trend. New capital at a bottom is a prerequisite for a reversal.

Cycle Completion: Cycle completion for any “mature” (blue-chip) asset generally occurs at the average closing price upon which the current meta-trend was realized (confirmation in Jan 2021 that close above 2017 ATH was “real”, allowing capital to safely enter the market.

3. A trend reversal that continues to close up through $31k past $34k without closing below $31k during the time of that trend. Would a) invalidate the current projection, and b) provide confirmation that capital can safely enter the market for positive gains.