While I am not a fully committed bear yet (but fully acknowledge that things are pretty bearish these days), I still think a rally in coming weeks/months is possible — BUT given the macroeconomic environment.. I recognize that one should always have a plan or at least an idea of what alternate possibilities look like so we will dive into some bearish targets.

If I examine the chart for support levels in a bearish scenario where we lose the macro support (yellow trendline) and we lose the secondary support at $34k to $35k.. then my first target is the swing low from June 2021 around $28k. That would be a fairly weak retracement on what appears (depending on how you draw it) to be a very weak rising wedge pattern (only a 4 degree uptrend). A $28k retracement would signal a double-bottom and satisfy a weak retracement that corresponds to a weak rising wedge . Odds of this happening I put around 50% due to the weak 4 degree uptrend for this wedge .

If we lose $28k range, we look at $20k as a critical support level , but failing that, I’m look at $16k to $18k range. This breakout target uses the length of wedge and confluence with an order block in late 2020 as a breakout target and key support. Odds of a retest of $20k seem extremely low, and below $20k even lower. We are talking 5% or less without another black swan or crisis.

Also dropping below $20k will break below earlier cycles ATH which never happened, and despite the macroeconomic anxiety, we have a much higher adoption rate in 2022 than ever before, we have much more liquidity and interest, and I don’t believe a drop that far is reasonable given that institutional players are less emotional, more calculated.. and you look at some of the smart money like Microstrategy and Saylor, whose average buy-in is around $30k now.

But that said – nothing is impossible. This is crypto after all. And some of these lines and patters are subject to interpretation. I also see bullish scenarios as a possibility, but in general the investment landscape is bearish currently and this gives you targets to consider as you plan your trading strategy.