Well, still waiting for the bottom.

Today’s breakdown looks like we are tracking to the original idea from December based on a review of historical market tops. A few idea tweaks have taken place over the past few months to consider possible trajectory but ultimately Target remains $20k area.

The scenario was based on Weekly MA50 interaction. Market Top interaction with the 50 weekly MA has typically been in 3 parts:

1. Bounce on top of 50 WMA
2. Bounce up into 50 WMA
3. Break down away from 50 WMA

We are now at point 3 following a classic ‘double tap’ of the resistance.

– Expect a move down to $20k region
– points to a prolonged bear market
– ALTs.. plenty of folk warned others about the risk there

I’ll note some positive signals in recent days and there are still scenarios that support various Flat Correction scenarios I outlined a few months ago – leaning towards an Expanded Flat Correction . If markets calm and DXY backs off from resistance there may be a rally in a week or so but ultimately I do not expect a reversal and target to be reached.

Best, Hard Forky