As noted in earlier posts, I watch the 20w SMA and 21w EMA with great interest as a marker of local cycles. We are approaching a point of validating bullish sentiment in the market if these cross bullish and the chart continues up.

Now does that mean to expect $100k? No. In fact given the macroeconomics atm, despite a very bullish and supportive narrative growing for Bitcoin this year so far, we still have to respect the fact that record high inflation could lead to drastic measures, and the conflict in Ukraine is also a potential black swan if it escalates.

That said, as predicted all the way back in Q4 2021, the 20/ 21w MA band is logging a fairly consistent pattern of bullish and bearish inversions with around a 17% reduction in duration each local cycle. This landed a floor for bear in February( ish ) and a bullish cross in March( ish ). So far that appears to be playing out. If no surprises come from the US Fed or Ukraine, we might have a chance for a final spicy rally.

But before I get ahead of myself, I should also caution that as noted above, this market is still very volatile due to external factors.. so nothing is confirmed until we first close over $45k, then series of resistances back towards the all time high.

You can read more about this 20/ 21w MA pattern in earlier posts of mine from last year where I predicted this PA (for now):

In December, calling a bottom of the bearish cycle in the lower $30s:

In December, calling a bullish cross in March of 2022: