I exited all of my crypto positions last night after we lost support at $39.3k. We really needed a bounce there for the structure to hold up and bounce higher. Now we’ve just printed new lower lows. The reason for exiting here is because now I think there’s more risk than reward, so I’d rather sit and watch things play out than have my money sitting in the market if what I’m about to say is a possibility of an outcome.

After zooming out and looking at the chart again, it looks like we’ve just tested resistance twice at $45k and each time it formed another lower low on higher timeframes (you can see this by looking at the chikou which I’ve drawn a circle around on the chart).

In the short term (next few days to a week), I could see us either trying to retest and break $43k or testing $45k one more time, but if we reject those regions, then the likelihood increases that we’re going to see new lows. The other scenario is that we just roll over, but I lean towards a move up first to convince people we’re going higher.

Why do I think we’re going to see the $20k region rather than just retesting the low $30ks? Well, if we break $37k which I think is likely because it’s already been tested multiple times, then the next area of support is $32k. We’ve already broken through that $32k region back in May-July and just retested it as support in January, so that support is already weakened. The $29k support has already been tested 3 times from May to July, so that support has weakened as well.

So the most likely scenario to me at this point is that we break through all of those supports and retest the $23k level which hasn’t been tested since we’ve gone up.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee. I’ve listed out numerous things that will need to happen between now and May for this to play out — we’d need to reject $43k-45k, then lose the $37k support. But if those two things happen, it increases the chances of this idea playing out. Then we’ll need to lose the subsequent levels on the chart.

$23k is where I’d want to buy a buyer of BTC . Bad news aside, I think that region will be a great spot to buy BTC as we should see a massive bounce after that.

Let’s see what happens over the coming weeks.