I’ve been confounded by this chart. I’ve decided to post what I’m trading, and I hope it helps others’ confusion. My end analysis is that we’re looking at a long period of price growth followed by a long period of market consolidation. We may still be in that period of consolidation for a year or two, or we may be about to exit via trend. Regardless, my analysis shows that the price will now flip. Further analysis shows that it’s likely to be a very prolonged upward trend, but that’s beyond the scope of this discussion.

First, safety please! Looking at this with veteran eyes, my first instinct says “it’s a flag, prepare for a large dip”. This may yet be true. I’ve provided tight stop-loss targets should this post be wrong.

Next, start with the context: We’ve seen a long period of price increase followed by an equally long period of correction. If you’re an elliott wave trader like me, it looks like a very clear 12345-ABC now ready to continue the bullish march upward. Elliott wave traders also appreciate that there are number alternative explanations that aren’t so neat and do not include a march to the moon.

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I’m going to halt the discussion here for now. Let’s see if this prediction has legs. If it does, I’ll provide a primer on the basics of the myriad analytical styles that went into this prediction.