Whilst my previous prediction did pick out $25K as the number for a bounce, and we saw a quick move back above $30K for some easy 30%+ gains on many ALTs, I failed to predict how a falling NASDAQ would impact BTC .

Based on this, and the power law corridor turning red, we are officially in 2018 bear repeat territory.

I’ve draw 2 zones as possible bottoms… the green box would be the ideal scenario – a short term dip between $15-$20K followed by a slow climb back up in 2023 whilst the market settles before the next bull run.

Red would be absolute capitulation. A full 80% drop as seen in 2018, back to the point of control in the volume profile , and hitting around $10K or just below.

Let’s hope the market instead settles here and moves slowly up or sideways… but personally I’m keeping a large cash position until later in the year.