Bitcoin has been boring the last couple of months and has roughly gone sideways in a rather long range for the last year. The price action has been sideways some of the longer term indicators have been priming and suggest that the next move is to the upside.

The stock to flow model comes and goes in popularity with the volatility of bitcoin . When bitcoin is impulsing to the upside people pay a lot of attention to the indicator. Then there are times like we are in right now, when the stock to flow has moved but price action is still roughly sideways. I myself historically have always doubted the stock to flow but it is putting more history behind it and so it seems to be more reliable than I have previously thought.

There are several different versions of log growth curves and I find this one useful. It is subdivided into sectors and I have elected to simplify the curve by showing the top and bottom 14.59% as well as the middle portion of the band. For the last two pumps on the stock to flow bitcoin moved roughly sideways around one of the log growth bands for quite a while before pumping to target or beyond. For the last couple of months price has hopped on top of the lower band I defined and so far has done a good job of finding support.

The Log MACD histogram is beginning to approach zero and the Log MACD is turning up. The hidden bullish divergence increases the probability that we will see a sustained move to the upside. If the last two trend pumps of the stock to flow are suggestive of this next uptrend we will still have to be patience for this move to slowly pick up steam. Hopefully we will see that strength pick up over the next two-six weeks. If the stock to flow ends up being accurate will will have to get a new log growth curve.

First things first will be to see how this weekly pattern resolves. But I have seen plenty of TA around that so I won’t replicate it here except to say a move to the top of the weekly keltner is likely, then retesting the horizontal level of the ascending triangle .