Volatility in crypto market is taken for granted. Especially sudden and consistent slump in crypto prices is prevalent. Nevertheless, when prices decline dramatically, investors feel the bitter taste of uncertainty.

In this post, I would like to share my analysis of Bitcoin and to explain the significance of today for BTC .

Since December 2020, Bitcoin has been posting prices in an upward trend, showing significant bullish trend in long-term. However, today marks the day Bitcoin broke the Major Upward Trend with an approximately 11% decrease in price with 190.4k selling volume , highest selling volume since May 23, 2021.

The Head and Shoulders Top graph is preceded by an upward trend of 285 days, which continued until the peak of Left Shoulder, making it almost 400 days of upward trend. As we can observe Left Shoulder posted notably higher volumes compared to a flatter Head and Right Shoulder volumes, which shows reduced market enthusiasm in Bitcoin’s possible another bullish run. Furthermore, today’s 190.4k selling volume (5th consecutive selling day) is dramatically higher than Sunday’s and Saturday’s volumes of 72k and 33k , respectively. As we can see the long-term Head and Shoulder Top combined with a Major Upward Trend has seen an 11% breakaway today with a bursting selling volume , concluding the technical indicator.

Relative Strength Index is at 25.5 with a downfall to oversold threshold. Furthermore, we see two death crosses indicated on the chart, which signals further possible sell offs. Lastly, with an MACD level -1935, which is the lowest since January, market sentiment is more incentivized towards selling on a daily bar chart.

We can see a slowing down in selling around 29,000USD, corresponding to 0.618 in Fibonacci Retracement , which is pretty strong support level . In the past 29,000USD level has been tried to breached 6 times. Today and tomorrow, we might see a 7th try to break down through support level .

I would like to swiftly mention pressures on crypto market recently and factors that may have caused this breakaway:
1. Geopolitical uncertainties
2. Fed’s determinacy in curbing inflation , so tighter monetary policy (reducing balance sheet and increasing interest rates) pushes crypto investors towards safer investment opportunities, as they give more yields, which prompts massive sellings.
3. Stricter regulations