A lot of talk has been happening lately, whether Bitcoin has found a bottom or if the June 2021 breaks will see even lower prices such as 20k. Well, we can never rule out anything in the investing world, everything is open as a possibility. Based on BTC’s historic price action though, we can get a fair understanding of the probabilities involved.

** The Green Zone and the Black Swan that broke it **
As you see, this is BTC on the 1W time-frame from 2012 to 2022. Since mid January 2022, the price entered the long-term Buy Zone (green area) and immediately reacted with a rebound. However, due to the recent events in Ukraine, we’ve been seeing a pull-back, which is still a Higher Low though. Wars are considered a Black Swan event, similar to the COVID flash crash in March 2020. As shown on the chart, that event was enough to make the price break below its multi-year Buy Zone and only find Support one Fib extension lower (2.0 Fib). As a result we can assume that if the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates more aggressively into a war involving more countries, it could turn into another Black Swan event. The probabilities for that though depend on each person’s understanding of reality.

** Previous Peak never re-tested **
Realistically that event doesn’t have the highest probability to happen. As a result, it is most likely that the current levels are the new bottom of the long-term price action. At the same time historically, Bitcoin has never hit the Peak of the previous Cycle. Anything can happen of course, but it is a fact that the $32.00 peak “never happened”, the $1250 peak “never happened”, so most likely we won’t see BTC hitting the $20000 peak of the previous Cycle either.

In fact, the 1W candle action since the November High, and in particular that since the mid January low, resembles the price action of every single Bear Cycle bottom: November 2018 – January 2019, July – October 2015 and January – May 2012 (Circle inside Blue Pattern).

So what do you think? Will 20k happen for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

——————————————————————————————————–

Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!

——————————————————————————————————–