Bitcoin Weekly Update #16 – 4C-Trading

“It is also worth noting that last weekend left a new gap in the CME Bitcoin futures market. As the price of Bitcoin is currently above it, I expect a drop in the coming days to at least close it. If you’re new to this and this last paragraph doesn’t mean anything to you, I invite you to read my article on this subject.”

For those who were able to take advantage of this opportunity to scalp, congratulations! But back to our weekly analysis.

What to expect?

There are several possible scenarios, including continuing to rise to the upper limit of the descending channel where Bitcoin has now been for the past 6 months. If its upper limit is not broken — at around $8500 — we would go down to the famous liquidity zone indicated on my chart by a light green rectangle: “Ideal Buy Zone”. In any case, and as I’ve been telling you for several weeks now, we’re still in a micro bear market. The necessary conditions to restart an uptrend are the following:

• Bullish cross on the weekly MACD…
• Fear and Greed Index very low
• Actual volume recovery
• Bounce on the weekly 200MA

In addition, there is the so-called “Golden Cross” on a weekly time frame, which took place at the beginning of December. Patience, then…

I would like to remind you that this is a strictly personal analysis, it is not a prediction but a trading plan. Don’t forget your stop-losses and adopt rigorous risk management. Only invest what you can afford to lose.

The chart of the week is this one: “200 Week Moving Average Heatmap” available on the LookIntoBitcoin website.

Notice how Bitcoin has been using this curve — in purple — as a support since… since 2012! (no data before). This is not a coincidence, it tells us one thing: the 200 MA is the key support of Bitcoin. Projected on the current chart, this future support curve should be in the $5300-$5700 range.