Hello Traders!

I don’t doubt that a lot of you are stressed out right now wondering what the heck is Bitcoin going to do!?
Well here is a quick analysis of where BTC currently stands and the possibly scenario’s that could play out.

– If you saw my BTC analysis yesterday you will see that this is essentially an update of that chart. The major difference being that BTC dropped down to support at $37.4K today.
– That was expected though so as of right now the predicted path is playing out.

So what’s next?
– At the moment BTC is holding support and putting in Bullish price action on the low time frames (5 min).
– This tells me that the probabilities dictate BTC should bounce.

**So where will BTC bounce to?
– IMO there are 2 high probability scenario’s and 1 low probability scenario.
#1) (Highest Probability) – BTC hits the .618 FIB level at $39.2K (which is also resistance and almost intersects with the descending trend line from the prior 2 local highs) and gets rejected at this level. If this happens more than likely it will be a relatively quick descent to $34K from there.
#2) (Medium Probability) – BTC hits the upper descending trend line from the falling wedge and gets rejected. If this happens it could potentially get one more small bounce at the $37.4K support before breaking dow to $34K.
#3) (Low Probability) A lot of people have asked me about this scenario… Since a Falling Wedge formation is Bullish wouldn’t it make sense that BTC should get a pump from this level and break through the formation to the upside right? Not necessarily… There are several factors that I have taken into consideration, but primarily that there are several very Bearish indicators that essentially neglect the Bullish formation. I will make a separate post explaining this in detail tomorrow. Even if this scenario played out, I think the highest that price could go would be $43K before getting rejected, then head to $34K.

Final Thoughts
– Personally I entered a few trades tonight when BTC hit the $37.4K level. I have been projecting that BTC should bounce from this level one last time. I think there is a very high probability that this will be a smaller bounce and BTC will be headed to $34K possibly at some point next week. If you entered a trade I would take profits early just to be safe. I would rather take profits early than wait for the last possible second and risk price reversing and miss out on profits all together.

If you guys have any questions or requests just let me know, I will get to any chart requests as quick as I can.

Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!