BTC printed a bear flag in the bigger picture and recently for the first time lost the parallel channel (for candle closes) and has since come close to the wick trendline (trendline 2) where I suspect it may bounce from, back to the 41k mark. In my opinion, this is a typical break and retest pattern which will be followed by a dump to the 3rd trendline, and then a retest of the 2nd, followed by the final capitulation to 28-29k. I have strong doubts that BTC will break this level in the 1st attempt (if it breaks at all) and that there should be a significant bounce from 28k mark possibly to the high 30s, as longs will most likely stack up at this position.

I think many people may be confusing the retest patterns with bullish reversals. It is all too standard for BTC to retest a support level once it breaks; we’ve seen this as it came down from 69k and retested almost every support it broke. Unless BTC breaks back into the channel and closes a few candles within, I do not expect a sustained reversal.

Key points:
– parallel channel (candle close) break
– bear flag dump
– break and retest each level