In my previous post I explained that the price is often the easy part to work out in markets, its the when that gets people. If when didn’t matter, we would say that price is expected to reach a high of x with relative confidence. Assuming you are long term bullish on Bitcoin you could say the price of Bitcoin will eventually exceed $100k for example. It could take a year, it could take 20 years, the statement holds true. The problem is that the “when” provides the greater opportunity.

Its the opportunity I am trying to establish by continuing to look at past results to establish the lows for bitcoin , as opposed to the highs.

So here is the latest guess. It is a guess, but its as good as any.

Side note;
As previously noted I am still invested in crypto heavily, although I did sell the recent top to realign my portfolio and reduce exposure. I did not necessarily time the top, it was more I readjusted at the right time. This does however afford me a more relaxed approach to price and one I would advocate this feeling to anyone worried about price. The golden zone is this;

Price goes up = winning
Price goes down = winning

If you find yourself in a position where either outcome is a good outcome you have achieved what many don’t in crypto, a balanced portfolio. There will always be FOMO. You will always wish you invested more in a bull run. The trick is to stay just on the right side of it.

Or you could YOLO your savings, you do you.

Quote;
“In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation . There is no safe store of value.” – Alan Greenspan