Since my recent analysis on the ‘Buy Zone since April 2013’ attracted so much interest and reactions by the community, I’ve decided to extend it. On the current idea, you see Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) on the 2D time-frame with the Buy Zone and 1W MA200 (red trend-line present). This time, I’ve designated the current and past two Cycles with a Pivot line that I’m calling ‘The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line’.

** The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line **
This trend-line starts as a Resistance on each Bear Cycle. Then after the 1st Half of the Cycle is completed (red Triangle), the price breaks above the pivot and trades within a pattern that resembles a Channel Up (blue shape), but always above the trend-line, until the bottom is made.

** The 2D RSI **
In the past two Cycles, this bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200, which is currently around 22000 and rising. With the 2D RSI having reached below the 30.000 oversold level and rebounded, that bottom is certainly close. If the RSI breaks above its own Lower Highs trend-line, more particularly the (3) leg before the 1W MA200 is hit, then that would mean that the Bear Cycle’s Bottom is already priced.

This could mean trading sideways within the blue Channel Down as Bitcoin did in late January – early February 2015 and late December 2018 – January 2019.

So how important do you think this Cyclical Pivot Trend-line is at the moment? Do you think the bottom will be priced on the 1W MA200 or will the RSI break upwards meaning it’s already priced in? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

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