This isn’t the first time I use the time Fibonacci levels along with the horizontal retracement levels when comparing past Cycles on Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ), but it may be more relevant than ever to refresh your memory as we are getting close to the desired buy levels on the long-term.

This chart is on the 1W time-frame and first and foremost is dictated by the Halving events, where I’ve also included the next one (Halving 4 in March 2024). The time Fibs start from one Halving event and end on the next one. The horizontal Fib retracement levels measure from the bottom of the Bear Cycle to the top of the next Bull Cycle.

As you see, the bottom on each of the past two Cycles has never been priced below the 0.382 horizontal Fib or after the 0.618 time Fib. At the same time, a confirmed buy on a cyclical basis, was always when the 1W RSI hit the 30.00 oversold level and the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) crossed below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to form a Bearish Cross.

Right now, the 0.382 Fib is roughly around 21300, just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 0.618 time Fib is on September 19 2022. That means that based on this model, it is very unlikely to see a price bottom below 21300 or after the coming September. Is the price already good for you to make a long-term buy or will you wait for the 1D MA200/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross and the 1W RSI 30.00 reading? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

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