#Bitcoin #Daily #Elliott Wave #Scenario #Tommy
– These are the scenarios I am personally looking at from the perspective of Elliott Wave Theory. We have taken into account technical factors such as widening patterns, stophunting price action, parallel channels, and master patterns that are frequently appearing these days. Let’s take a look at each one.

– First, let’s start with A, my most bearish scenario. This is a wave counting where the bullish wave from the $32.9K low made in January is regarded as a big dead-cat bounce and the bearish wave appears once more. I interpreted the sideways section that came out after this time as a 5-3-5 green ABC correction structure. If there is an additional bullish trend and the black bullish channel is successful, the above-expected resistance or B-wave targeting ranges are $53.6k~$54.8k and $57.2k~$58.4k. The red C-wave targeting ranges that can be derived from the bigger picture are $22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8K~$19.5K. This scenario becomes more likely if it fails to support the bottom of the black and green channels.

– My most bullish scenario, B, is counting the $32.9K low as the end of one unit of correction wave and the subsequent rise as a shock wave. We are currently testing the support of the red short-term bullish trend line , and if Bitcoin successfully support here, we cannot rule out the case of a 1st wave of the Leading Diagonal . If it fails to support the area and shows a bearish trend , we see it as the $37.8K~$39.5K main support, where the black channel bottom and HVP overlap. This scenario will be invalidated when the $32.9K low is broken out below the low level. If Bitcoin hit the Swing High and go for a new high, Bitcoin’s bullish shock wave targets are $72.5k-$74.0k and $77.5k-$79.0k.

– The following two scenarios are counting of the wave structure above $28K interpreted as 3-3-5 Expanded correction. The C scenario is a case that flows into the form of widening or broadening patterns that are common these days, and was regarded as an Expanded Flat adjustment. In other words, it is a scenario where the trend is inverted by breaking out the $28.9K, the bottom that I currently see as important, and making a strong V-shaped rebound at the stophunting level. If the upper resistance section of $53.6k~$54.8k is broken out, this counting will be cancelled. The green 5 wave or red C wave targeting at the bottom is $22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8k~$19.5k.

– Scenario D is similar to C, but with shorter green 5 waves, that is, counting with Truncated 5 waves or C waves. This is a scenario that has been analyzed with a running flat wave structure and does not break out from the bottom of the black or green channel. We see it as a $37.8K~$39.5K targeting range, and even if the aforementioned channels are broken out, $29.1k~$30.8k, the lower part of the smaller widening pattern after $32.9k, is also a short-term support area worth considering.

– (Summary) The most important question is whether Bitcoin can sustain the red bullish trend line in the shortest period of time, and if there is a breakout, we can expect support at the bottom of the black and green channels. If Bitcoin breakout so far, it is safe to say that the $28.9k floor, where many lows are formed in the big picture, is open. If the market gets worse and there is a big drop, a place worth buying in life is the area where the lower widening pattern and the stophunting level overlap ($22.3k~$23.6k and $17.8k~$19.5k). If there is an additional bullish trend , the resistance areas to consider in the middle are $53.6k~$54.8k and $57.2k~$58.4k, and in the big picture, if the swing high is successful and the high is renewed once more, we are looking at $72.5k~$74.0k and $77.5k~$79.0k.