Hello Traders!

First off, If you have any questions feel free to comment or message me. I know trading can be difficult and I would rather you message me about a trade setup than make a mistake and lose out. I’m pretty good about replying so I’ll try and get back to you as quick as I can!

**As I’m sure you are aware, Bitcoin had a nice pump today from the $38K region almost up to $41K at the time of this post. And I bet you’re wondering what the heck does this mean for BTC?!
– Well the truth is, we really don’t know yet…
– With trading you want to see clearly defined chart formations, patterns, directional bias, levels hit, etc. As of right now on the micro we really don’t have a clear picture.
– It’s hard to make a high probability prediction for the micro when BTC is ranging like this.

**So then how to we make an accurate prediction in a situation like this!?
– When you have no clear direction bias on the micro, the easiest way to try and make sense of it all is to zoom out and take a look at the Macro time frame.
– Look at the 4 Hour and/or Daily chart and analyze the chart from the macro perspective.

**What’s next for BTC?
– Zooming out we can see that BTC has been in an overall downtrend, creating lower lows along the way.
– This morning BTC was sitting below the support level it’s been trading on for the past week or so, it broke above today (which is bullish ) however if it closes back below it on the daily that is another bearish signal.
– Since January on the macro BTC has been trading in a Bear Flag formation ( Bearish ) and since the $48K high a couple weeks ago has been nearly in a non stop downtrend. – 16 of the last 19 days have been Red!
– Without going into too much more detail, the fact remains… the probabilities favor further downside continuation.

**Now it’s possible that BTC continues this rally for a couple more days, but until the 50MA + the $43K local resistance is broken and confirmed above, BTC is Bearish and expect downside continuation.

^^Possible Position Entries^^
– Right now I am not in any open positions, I’m waiting to see what happens over the coming days.
– 2 Levels that I have my eyes on are the $43K resistance for a possible short, and the $37K support for a possible long.

–Final Note–
– The analysis that I do are for the current market conditions at the time of creating the posts. The market changes on a daily basis and so do the trades/setups that I post. I will try to start and add any invalidating factors or create an update post for any trade setups that are no longer valid.

Best of Luck Trading!