Bitcoin’s impressive rally since March 14 has seen for the first time break below a Bull Flag pattern and not above it. Is this alarming and if so how low can the price go?

** The 1H MA200 and Higher Lows trend-line as Support **
Well at first, it doesn’t seem alarming, at least not as long as the Zone consisting of the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 2-week Higher Lows trend-line (started since the March 14 low) are holding. Those form the first Support Band on the short-term. If this breaks however, the price could seek the lower Fibonacci extensions (-1.0, -1.5 and -2.0) towards the next Support trend-line of the 1D MA50 (yellow line).

** The 1D MA200 as Resistance **
On the other hand, there is a clear Resistance, in the form of the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), that has already had a rejection on the price three days ago. A candle closing above this, would most likely sustain this 2 week rally as the price seeks the next unfilled Fibonacci extension level, which is the Fib 2.0.

Until this Resistance and the Support Zone mentioned above break, a scalping opportunity is presented in the form of a Triangle.

** The 2 week RSI Buy Zone **
Don’t ignore the 1H RSI , which just entered the 2 week Buy Zone (green zone) that started exactly when this rally took off on the Higher Lows trend-line.

As for where Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) stands on the longer-term, take a look at the 1D time-frame below. The current Bull Flag , could be similar to that of mid August 2021, which was formed half-way to a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. Right now the new 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross is emerging. This can be enough to sustain one last 2 week rally before a stronger correction:

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