Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) has been pulling back since its March 28 Top. That top was a Higher High in the wider pattern of the Channel Up, which Bitcoin has been trading in since the January 24 bottom.

** The Bull Flag **
The pull-back is so far a Bull Flag , which essentially is a Channel Down when an asset is on an uptrend that hasn’t broken below its previous Higher Low of the main trend. Those Higher Lows are what I marked as ‘Internal Higher Lows trend-line’.

** The 4H MA200 and the downtrend **
The previous Bull Flag that marked the last Higher High of the Channel Up (February 10), was false and eventually failed, i.e. the price broke below its bottom (Lower Lows). After a short consolidation around the 4H MA200, the downtrend eventually made a Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up.

As a result we should keep an eye on the current Bull Flag’s bottom. A break should lead to the 4H MA200 (it’s not that far off after-all) and a break below the Internal Higher Lows, will open the way for the new Higher Low. The 4H MACD so far shows that we are in a similar pattern to February.

** Invalidation **
However, a break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) or better yet, the 48,150 High, is the invalidation level of the Channel Up, and most likely will lead to a quick test of the 52150 December 27 High.

Which scenario do you think is more likely to take place? Pull-back towards the Channel Down’s bottom (roughly 38000 level) or invalidation towards 52150? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!

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